不同时间序列滞后条件下的区域物质流效果分析:以甘肃省为例

Analysis on the Effect of Regional Material Flow under the Condition of Different Time Series Lag: In Case of Gansu Province

利用甘肃省近15年的物质代谢数据进行物质流分析,首先,探讨甘肃省物质输入输出的强度特征与效率;进而对物质输入与输出关系进行了相关性检验,并利用格兰杰检验确定二者因果关系;在此基础上通过物质流时间序列的滞后计量模型分析确定了甘肃省物质流的时间序列特征,并据此提出政策建议。

The paper used material flow analysis method to analyze the total input and output of material flow, input and output inten- sity, efficiency, relevance , etc. in Gansu province based on the data of recent 15 years. Firsfly, it showed a panoramic view of materi- al flows in Gansu Province. Furthermore , this paper established the relevant quantitative analysis model, and granger test to determine the causation. Those empirical research implied a time lag effect on material flow. Finally, it summarized findings and improvement of the study, which provided theoretical reference for policy making.