泰国政治持续动荡的结构性原因与发展前景

The structural Cause of Thailand's Continuous Political Turmoil and Its Prospects

本文从政治系统运作的"利益结构—权力结构—制度结构"关系视角,对泰国政治近年来持续动荡的原因进行了分析,认为影响政治和解的障碍主要有三:存量改革引发利益分歧,政治格局有待"再平衡",宪政体制缺乏民主协商;并指出,中泰战略合作有助于泰国在"增量改革"过程中弥合社会裂痕,进而平稳有序的促成政治和解。

This article analyses the causes of Thailand's continuous political turmoil over the recent years from the perspective of functional relations between 'interest structure, power structure and system structure ',deeming that there are three obstacles that influence the political reconciliation,namely that stock reform has caused divergence of interest,political alignment needs to be ' re-balanced' and constitutional system lacks democratic consultation. The article also pointed out that strategic cooperation between China and Thailand would be conducive to bridging social rifts during Thailand's 'incremental reform'so as to sequentially promote political reconciliation in a smooth way.