世纪之交国际利率政策趋势分析

Analysis of Policy Trend of International Interest Rate in the New Century

本文讨论了由于货币的边际效用总为正 ,如果经济存在市场未出清的持续状态 ,只有通过扩张性的财政与货币政策 ,才能提高收入水平 ,降低失业率。但政策使用不当或频繁使用 ,也会引起经济的波动 ,造成不必要的损失。目前发达国家特别是美国由于自身金融自由化的不断深入、经济结构的调整以及技术创新 ,使得市场的均衡水平更接近市场完全出清。利率弹性以及市场的自我调节能力得到提高 ,利率水平比较稳定 ,因而政策的实施更倾向于比较轻微的调整。发展中国家以及我国的政策取向应侧重于利率市场化、技术创新以及合理使用宏观政策调控手段 ,今后全球利率水平的趋同性将更为明显。

In this paper we consider that when the marginal utility of money is positive and the market weakness exists, only by carrying out a fiscal and monetary expansible policy can the income be raised and the rate of unemployment come down. But if the polocy failures occur, the economic will fluctuate, which will cause unnecessary damage. On one hand, in some advanced countries, especially in the U.S.A.today,with the development of financial liberty, adjustment of economic structure and technology innovation, the persistent stagnation has turned to be a full-equilibrium. There, the elasticity of interest rates and the selfadjustment of market have increased and the interest rate level remains quite steady.So the policy is more tempered and it needs to be adjusted slightly. On the other hand,the developing countries, including China, should adopt a policy, which prefers the liberalizing of interest rates and technology innovation, and use the macroeconomic policy more effectively. From that we may conclude that in the future the level of the globe interest rates will become coincident.