1961—2010年广东省高温天气时空变化特征分析

Temporal and spatial distribution of high temperature weather from 1961 to 2010 in Guangdong province

利用广东省27个地面观测站1961—2010年日平均气温、日最高气温以及日最低气温等资料,采用线性倾向、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、EOF及REOF等方法,分析了广东省高温天气的气候变化特征。结果表明:广东省多年平均高温日数由北向南递减,并且递减趋势明显;近50 a广东省各地区的高温日数基本为上升趋势,中部高温日数的上升幅度最为明显;从全省平均情况看,高温日数长期演变为显著的上升趋势,20世纪90年代末之前处于偏少期,90年代末期以后进入偏多期,2005年后高温日数上升趋势较为显著;高温日数在1998年出现了突变现象;高温日数存在20—23 a的振荡周期,但这种周期性变化并不显著;广东省高温日数的标准化距平场可分为中部、北部和南部3区。

Using the dally mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperature data at 27 observational stations in Guangdong province from 1961 to 2010 ,the climate change characteristics of high temperature weather were an- alyzed by methods of a linear trend, a Morlet wavelet analysis, a Mann-Kendall test, an EOF（ empirical orthogonal function） and a REOF （rotated empirical orthogonal function）. The results show that the mean high temperature days are in a significant decreasing trend from south to north in Guangdong province. However, it is in an increas- ing trend in the recent 50 years in the most areas of Guangdong province, especially in the middle area. The long term evolution of high temperature days is in a significantly increasing trend,and the turning occurs in 1990s with small gradient before 1990s and large gradient afterwards. The number of high temperature days increases signifi- cantly after 2005 and an abrupt change appears in 1998. It has a cycle of 20-23 years for high temperature days, while the variation of cycle is not significant. The standard anomaly field of high temperature days in Guangdong province can be divided into three regions, i. e. central, north and south regions.