基于空间集聚的中国入境旅游区域经济效应分析

Regional economic effects of inbound tourism in China:Based on the perspective of spatial agglomeration

运用残差空间自回归模型、地理权重回归模型及基尼系数等空间分析方法,探讨了2001-2010年中国地市入境旅游的区域经济效应及其空间差异变化。在提升区域经济水平上,中国地市入境旅游对区域经济总体上具不断增强的促进效应,且存在持续而显著的空间集聚作用;局部上具显著促进效应的地市集中分布在东部沿海地带及其邻近地区,且表现为促进效应不断增强、集聚范围不断扩大的态势。在调整区域经济差异上,入境旅游具扩大区域经济差异的总体效应,但局部上集聚范围的扩大表明其总体上的扩大效应在逐渐减弱;基于空间集中性的分析也表明,不仅在总体上也在各地带的内部区域上,这种扩大效应存在且具不断减弱的趋势。研究表明,地市入境旅游区域经济效应的发挥主要体现了市场经济运行规律的作用,而其变化趋势也反映了政府宏观调整与区域旅游发展政策及规划的战略取向。

Based on the perspective of spatial agglomeration, this paper discussed the regional economic effects of inbound tourism in China in the period 2001-2010. Spatial autoregressive error model （SEM）, geographically weighted regression （GWR） and Gini coefficient were used for spatial data analysis. The main conclusions can be drawn as follows： （1） On the whole, inbound tourism among cities can promote the development of regional economy, which was inclined to be increased from 2001 to 2010. On the other hand, the results indicate that the promotion effect on regional economy from inbound tourism shows the global spatial agglomeration pattern by using Moran＇s I and SEM analysis. （2） The results of GWR analysis demonstrate that the influence from inbound tourism also shows local aggregation pattern. Regional economy of cities located in the eastern coastal zone and its neighbouring area is obviously promoted by inbound tourism. At the same time, the promotion effect was gradually increasing, and the influencing scope of spatial agglomeration was extended in the period 2001-2010. However, the promotion effect on the most cities located in the central and western China is not statistically significant. （3） The spatial difference reflects that the development of inbound tourism would enlarge the regional economic chasm among different regions, while the temporal variation of the economic chasm induced by inbound tourism would be decreasing. This phenomenon of regional economy can be also manifested with the spatial analysis of Gini coefficient. These main conclusions can reflect that the effect from inbound tourism in China conforms to the functions of market economy to a certain degree, and China＇s spatial development policies will result in the variation of promotion effect from inbound tourism.