草地理论载畜量调查数据空间化方法及应用

A spatialization method for survey data of theoretical stock-carrying capacity of grassland in China and its application

以20世纪80年代全国草地资源调查的理论载畜量数据和同时期的全国1:25万土地覆被数据为基础,按省区构建理论载畜量与不同草地类型面积之间的关系模型。根据属性数据空间化思路,利用模型计算与残差修正相结合的技术方法,将80年代的全国草地理论载畜量调查数据从市县单元转换到公里网格尺度上,同时计算2005年全国公里网格尺度的草地理论载畜量。在此基础上,从公里网格和省级行政区划两个尺度上分析全国草地理论载畜量在近30年间(20世纪80年代-2005年)的变化。结果表明,近30年来中国草地生态系统正在退化、萎缩,草地总生产力下降。为实现中国社会经济的可持续发展,必须加强对草地生态系统的保护,保持草地生态系统的健康、良性发展和草地资源的合理开发利用。

Firstly, the provincial relation models between theoretical stock-carrying capacity and area of various kinds of grassland were established based on grassland survey data and land cover in China in the 1980s. Then the surveyed theoretical stock-carrying capacity in the 1980s was spatialized from county level administrative divisions to a scale of 1 km by 1 km based on idea of spatialization of attribute data with the method of combining model computation with residuals rectification, and the theoretical stock-carrying capacity in 2005 was calculated with these models. On the basis of the above research work, changes of national theoretical stock-carrying capacity from the 1980s to 2005 were analyzed at a scale of 1 km by 1 km and provincial level respectively. Comparison of theoretical stock-carrying capacity between the 1980s and 2005 at a scale of 1 km by 1 km showed that theoretical stock-carrying capacity decreased in most areas, and the regions where theoretical stock-carrying capacity decreased significantly occurred in Xinjiang, Hainan, Northeast China, Fujian, Henan and Shandong. The result from analysis at provincial level demonstrated that national theoretical stock-carrying capacity decreased generally with a rate of 3.11%. The areas where theoretical stock-carrying capacity decreased significantly include Liaoning, Shanghai, Jilin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Tianjin, Fujian, Henan and Heilongjiang. The theoretical stock-carrying capacity in these areas decreased at a rate of more than 10%. There were only 6 provinces where theoretical stock-carrying capacity increased slightly, and increasing rate of five out of them was less than 1%. The above analysis results indicate that grassland eco-system has been deteriorating and shriveled, and productive forces of grassland has been declining in China over the past 30 years. It is extremely urgent to strengthen protection of grassland eco-system, to keep grassland eco-system healthy and to maintain rational development and utilization of grassland resource for socioeconomic sustainable development.