中国就业结构变化的区域差异——基于偏离—份额分析法的实证

Regional Differences of Employment Structure:Based on Empirical about Shift-Share Analysis

本文运用静、动态偏离—份额分析法对我国1993—2010年各省份就业结构变化进行实证分析。静态偏离—份额分析法显示,1993—2010年各省区就业增长份额分量、结构偏离分量、竞争力偏离分量存在很大差距;就业类型主要表现为竞争优势推动型和结构优势推动型;动态偏离—份额分析法显示,1993—2001年、2002—2010年两阶段相比,就业增长份额分量、结构偏离分量存在增大的趋势,竞争力偏离分量存在减少的趋势。2002—2010年的就业类型由1993—2001年的快速增长型和竞争优势推动型转变为四种类型并存,不同区域就业结构变化及其影响因素呈现出较为显著的空间异质性特征。因此,充分发挥比较优势,合理制定就业引导政策,在经济增长方式转型、结构优化升级背景下促进就业结构的优化,是各地政府共同面对的重大问题。

This paper, using static,dynamic shift-share analysis,empirically evaluate changes of employment structure in provinces and autonomous in 1993-2010. Static shift-share analysis shows,growth share component, the industrial structure deviate component and competitive deviate component have a big gap. The structures of employment mainly display industrial advantage driven and competitive advantage driven. Dynamic shift-share analysis shows,compared to two-stage 1993-2001 and 2002-2010,the share of employment growth,industrial structure deviates exists a increasing tendency,competitiveness deviated appears a decreasing trend, the employment structure types in 2002-2010,employment rapid growth and competitive advantage by the 1993-2001 driven into a uniform distribution of four types. Different areas of employment structure change showed significant spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, give full play to comparative advantages and develop a reasonable the em- ployment guide policy. In the transformation of economic growth mode and structural optimization and upgrading, promoting the optimization of employment structure are local governments face major problems.