电网公司基建工程年度投资组合预测研究

Annual Portfolio Forecast for Infrastructure Projects of Power Grid Companies

电网公司基建工程年度投资组合预测模型从历史工程数据和工程通用设计角度,对在建基建工程采用三种不同的模型分别进行预测,确定合理的权重并进行组合。根据下达的投资计划对资金需求进行预测,同时预测可抵扣增值税,为电网公司的资金安排提供支撑,降低财务成本。以某省2013年一季度在建及开工110 kV及以上输变电工程为研究对象,按基建工程投资的组合预测模型,计算得到预测投资计划,可减少资金安排1.19亿元,切实增强电力公司资金的灵活性。

From the perspective of the historical engineering data and the general engineering design, this paper ap-plies three different models for the annual investment portfolio forecast for infrastructure projects of power grid compa-nies by determining reasonable weights and combinations. In accordance with the investment plan, prediction is made on the demand for funds, as well as the deductible VAT, which provides the support for the Power Grid Companies＇ financial arrangements and the financial cost reduction. Based on the case study of the 110kV and above power trans-mission and transformation projects started and progressed in the first quarter of 2013 in a province, the forecast in-vestment plan is calculated according to the forecast models; consequently, the funding arrangements can be reduced by 119 million RMB, substantially increasing the funding flexibility of power grid companies.