大众化阶段的人才供求态势与高等教育转型发展

The State of Human Resources and Higher Educational Transformation Development in the Popularization Stage

2012年我国高等教育在校生总人数已达到《教育规划纲要》2020年的预期规模。2011—2020年间,我国高等教育毕业生累计总规模将达到一亿人,其中普通高校毕业生为7 000万人。在20世纪90年代,普通高校毕业生数仅能满足白领岗位需求的三分之一;新世纪前十年,普通高校毕业生数已开始大于白领岗位总需求人数;未来十年,普通高校毕业生有40%左右须进入蓝领岗位就业,成为知识型工人、知识型农民和知识技能型商业服务人员。即使未来十年高等教育总招生规模按年均1.5%低速增长,2020年我国高等教育总规模也将突破4 000万人,有望提前进入高等教育普及化阶段。这一形势的重大变化呼唤高等教育转型发展,要求各级各类高等学校重新科学定位与合理分工,并在科类专业结构和人才培养规格方面做出重大调整。

By 2012, the total number of our undergraduates has reached the expected scale in the year 2020 according to the Education Outline. During the year 2011-2020, the accumulative total scale of our higher education graduates will reach 100 million, among which the number of graduates from regular universities is 70 million. In the 1990s, the number of graduates from regular universities could only meet 1/3 of the demand of white-collar posts. In the first 10 years of the new century, the number of graduates from regular universities has been larger than the total demand number of white-collar posts. In the future 10 years, around 40% of the graduates from regular universities must enter blue-collar posts, and become knowledge-based workers, farmers and skill-oriented business service staff. Even if the total enrolment scale of the universities in the future 10 years is increasing at an annual average low speed of 1.5%, it will break through 40 million by the year 2020, hopefully entering the stage of higher educational universalness ahead of schedule. The phasic significant change calls for the transformation development of higher education, requesting the scientific orientation and rational division of labor again by various levels of universities, and asking for significant adjustment in the disciplinary structure and talent cultivation standard.