气候变化对浙江沿海风暴潮的影响

Impacts of climatological change on storm surge in Zhejiang coastal water

基于浙江沿海多个气象观测站和潮位观测站近50年的气温、潮位及风暴潮的资料,研究了气候变化背景下浙江沿海台风暴潮变化特征.分析表明,随着沿海地区年平均气温的上升,浙江沿海相对海平面、登陆台风、超警戒风暴潮、较大风暴增水、年极值高潮位等都呈现出上升或增多趋势;在此背景下,浙江沿海风暴潮灾害风险也随之增大,特别是2000年以来,登陆浙江沿海的台风个数和最大增水超过300cm的风暴潮次数都显著增多.对气候变化背景下浙江沿海风暴潮灾害的影响分析,将为今后风暴潮预警及防灾、减灾的应对提供重要的启示和参考.

The variations of storm surge during typhoon in Zhejiang costal water based on the data of temperature, tidal height and storm surge in weather stations and tidal stations during the past 50 years are described and ana lysed. The results demonstrate that the rise in sea surface temperature and sea-level will be accompanied by a corre sponding increase in the numbers of typhoon, the value of setup, higher than the warning elevation and the extreme annual high tidal elevation. The analysis also reveals that the higher temperature causes the rise of risk of storm surge disaster. With the acceleration of temperature rise the number of typhoon and the frequency of maximum storm surge which is more than 300 centimeters have doubled since 2000. Therefore, the disaster risk caused by storm surge in Zhejiang coastal water from the point of the climatological change is analysed. This information would be a value to researcher for future disaster preventing and mitigating and storm surge forecasting.