地方政府债务问题与危机风险防范——巴西教训及对我国地方债务问题的再审视

20世纪80年代前后,巴西发生了三次地方政府债务危机。"负债式增长战略"以及债务约束和风险预警机制缺乏是导致危机发生的主要原因。当前,我国地方政府债务问题增加,表现为规模大、结构复杂、债务原因多样化和债务扩展机制动力较强等特点。债务问题正逐渐累积财政风险和金融风险。如果没有形成债务约束机制、化解机制和风险预警机制,地方债务规模超过"债务阈值",就有可能引发债务危机,甚至是金融危机。为此,需要通过《财政法案》立法来规范地方政府的举债行为;通过建立债务责任制来约束举债人的行为;通过债务披露制度将地方债务问题透明化;通过债务风险预警机制来防范风险的发生;通过财税体制改革和发行市政债券来形成可持续的地方政府债务平衡模式。

In the 19g0s, Brazil experienced three huge local government debt crises. ＂Debt - depending growth strategy＂ and lack of the debt constraints and risk warning mechanism were the main causes of the crises. At present, the Chinese local governments accumulated a good deal of debts. The general situations are the huge scale, complicated structure, diversity of forming debt, and powerful extension mechanism. The debt problem gradually accumulated fiscal risk and financial risk. Without constraint mechanism, resolving mechanism and risk warning mechanism of debt, if debt scale is over the debt threshold, it will be likely to trigger a debt crisis, even a financial crisis. Therefore, we need to built up budgeting legislations to regulate the debt behaviors of local governments; establish debt responsibility system to govern behaviors of the borrower; be transparent to the public about local debt problems; prevent the happening of the risk through debt risk warning mechanism; and form a sus- tainable model of local government debt balance through the fiscal and taxation system reform and the issuance of municipal bonds.