2013年中国生猪市场回顾及2014年展望

Live Hog Market Retrospect in 2013 and Prospect in 2014

2013年,在肉类生产和消费整体处于艰难低迷的情况下,国内宏观经济前弱后稳、"国八条"出台、H7N9疫情等因素,对生猪生产起到了重要的支撑作用,也加速了中国肉类生产和消费新格局的形成。2013年我国生猪价格演绎"深V型"走势,均价15.01元/kg,同比下降1.05%;生猪养殖平均盈利69.42元/头,同比上涨5.85%;仔猪毛利18.95元/头,同比下降75.84%;屠宰毛利169.82元/头,同比上涨36.6%;全国生猪养殖销售利润率为3.94%,远远低于2000年以来的水平。自此,养猪生产进入微利期,高成本、低利润造成养殖风险逐渐加大。

In 2013,as the influences of domestic macroecomomic（first weak then stable）, ＂introduction of State of eight＂, the decrease of meat consumption bubble and HTN9 outbreak,there were short-term negative impacts on poultry and cattle and sheep industry.Pork,however,had played an important role in meat production and sale;in the meantime,it speeded the formation of Chinese new pattern of meat production and sale.The pork price showed a deep-v during the 2013, the average price of live hog was CNY15.01/kg,down 1.05% year-on-year.During the same year, profits of live hog were CNY69.42/head, up 5.85% from last year. Profits for piglet sale recorded CNY18.95/head, decreasing 75.84% year-on-year. Slaughter gross profits were CNY169.82/head, up 36.6% year-on-year.The ratio of national sales＂ profit for live hog farming was 3.94%,which was much lower than the average ratio of 8.01% since 2000.The hog production has become the period of small profit,the farming risk has been gradually increased as high cost and low profit.