2013年中国赖氨酸、蛋氨酸市场回顾及2014年展望

2013 China Lysine and Methionine Market Review and 2014 Outlook

2013年，中国赖氨酸产能扩张至历史性高位，新增厂家不断涌入，集中度分散，出口量增长有限，中国地区整体供大于求的现象进一步加剧，造成2013年赖氨酸价格跌至历史性的低位。在中国地区养殖市场遭遇低迷的背景下，饲料生产量下降，但由于玉米价格相对于豆粕价格偏低，赖氨酸在饲料中的添加量进一步提高。另外，部分替代产品，如DDGS的广泛应用，也促进赖氨酸的应用增加。根据2013年厂家公布的数据预测，未来1～2年全球赖氨酸产能将达到400万t以上，中国产能将达到220万t左右。而蛋氨酸方面，2013年中国地区蛋氨酸供应量18_8万t，需求量18．4万t。供应方面，国产产量增长，进口量缩减，企业间竞争激烈；需求方面，2013年畜禽养殖行情受“H7N9”事件影响，禽料产量大幅下降，导致蛋氨酸需求增长有限。供应略大于需求导致2013年中国蛋氨酸市场价格逐步进入合理的价格区间。2013年第四季度，受紫光化工环保停产、法国地区蛋氨酸供应紧张、安迪苏进口量减少等事件持续影响，中国地区供应短期货紧支撑价格反弹上涨。根据公开的企业产能扩张计划，预计2014年亚洲将成为新的蛋氨酸主产区，供应压力增大，竞争将变得激烈，整体价格走势不容乐观。

In 2013, lysine production capacity expansion rapidly in china, the market concentration became dispersion as new manufacturers join the market, while the export growth came down, as a result, the oversupply was more serious, and lysine price dropped to historic lows. Although feed production was declined in 2013, but low corn/ soybean price was improving lysine usage in the feed. Particularly other replaced products, such as DDGS, increased the amount of lysine usage, too. According to the manufacturers, Boyar prdicted that the world lysine production capacity will reach to 4 million tons annual in the next 1-2 years, and the Chinese capacity will reach to 2.2 million tons annual. In 2013, Methionine market supply was 188,000 t and demand was 184,000 t in china. Domestic production growths and imports decrease were the result of competition between manufacturers; livestock market was affected by the ＂H7N9＂, poultry feed production fell sharply and restricted methionine demand growth. Methionine supply was slightly more than the demand, which resulted the price gradually into the reasonable range in China market in 2013. But in the fourth quarter, methionine price rebounded because of Chongqing Unisplendour Chemical stopped production as environmental protection, Adisseo reduced imports and methionine supplied tightly in French. According to methionine production capacity expansion plans, Asia will be expected to become the new production unit in 2014, the competition will be fierce, the price trend in longterm will not be optimistic.