宏观经济环境、“飞向品质”与风险资本筹集

Macroeconomic Conditions,“Flight-to-quality” and Venture Capital Fundraising

本文以风险资本筹集为研究情境检验"飞向品质"假说。以2000年至2011年间筹集的1162个风险投资基金为样本,使用logit模型,本文的检验结果表明:风险投资机构在宏观经济处于高增长期或扩张期时筹集早期基金的可能性显著地高于低增长期或衰退期;在高增长期或扩张期时筹集高科技基金的可能性显著地高于低增长期或衰退期;在高增长期或扩张期时首次筹集基金的可能性显著地高于低增长期或衰退期。上述结论支持"飞向品质"假说,意味着宏观经济环境变动所引起的投资者投资偏好变化会影响风险投资机构的筹资行为。

This paper tests the ＂flight-to-quality＂ hypothesis in the context of venture capital fundraising. Using a sample of 1162 venture capital funds raised between 2000 and 2011 and logit model, we find that venture capital firms are more likely to raise early-stage funds during high growth period or during expansion than during low growth period or during recession, more likely to raise high-tech funds during high growth period or during expansion than during low growth period or during recession, and more likely to raise first funds dur- ing high growth period or during expansion than during low growth period or daring recession. These results support the hypothesis of ＂flight-to-quality＂ and suggest that the change of investors＇ preferences caused by the macroeconomic fluctuations would influence the way in which venture capital firms raise funds.