基于VEC模型的农村经济金融关系研究

Research on the Correlation between Rural Ecnomy and Rural Finance with VEC Model

基于1978—2009年的农村经济金融数据,本文通过构建多变量VEC模型,实证分析了我国农村金融发展与农村经济增长之间的相互关系。结果表明,我国农村经济金融之间存在长期的协整关系,但良性互动的农村经济金融关系还尚未建立。从长期看,农村金融的发展还是要取决于质的提升,即不断提高农村金融效率。

This paper analyses the correlation between rural finance devlopment and rural economic growth of China. To this end, VEC model is used to analyze the data from 1978 to 2009. Empirical study shows that there exists long-term cointegration relationship between China＇s rural economy and rural finance. But the benign and interactive correlation between rural economy and rural finance has not yet been established. In the long run, rural financial development in the future is still to rely on the improvement of quality, that is, constantly improved efficiency of rural finance.