基于突变理论的海上交通安全系统演化

Marine traffic safety system evolution based on catastrophe theory

为揭示系统本质,建立海上交通风险预控机制,基于突变理论对安全系统的演化行为进行研究.建立海上交通安全系统尖点突变模型,定义系统的安全、事故、风险状态,通过研究系统的演化原理,分析系统在不同状态间的演化模式,并探讨每种演化模式的实际应用.基于系统演化模式提出广义的海上交通风险预控模型,也是对FSA的完善.

The main purpose of marine traffic safety system （MATSS） evolution reveals the essence of MATSS and set up marine traffic prediction and control mechanism based on catas- trophe theory. Cusp catastrophe model of MATSS is established and concepts such as system safety, accident and risk status are defined. Then evolution patterns under different system status are analyzed under evolution theory and the practical application is also discussed. At the end, the paper generalizes marine traffic risk prediction and control model based on system evolution mechanism, which can also be the perfection for the FSA.