基于加权灰色系统的宁波水上交通事故致因和预测

Maritime accident cause and prediction based on the weighted grey system in Ningbo waters

运用灰色系统理论中加权灰色关联和预测的基本原理,对近5年宁波水上交通事故进行分析,按照各种事故类型、特点找出导致该水域水上交通事故发生的主要致因,并预测未来发展态势,提出对该水域通航安全的实践性建议.

The paper uses weighted grey connection and predic- tion principle to analyze the maritime accident in the recent 5 years, and finds out the main cause according to the characteris- tics of different accident types. Finally, the paper predicts the future development trend and puts forward the practical sugges- tion for ship navigation safety in Ningbo waters.