运量不确定性下的集装箱船规模经济

Economies of scale in container ship under uncertainty of traffic volume

建立航线经济模型,论证了除船舶自身成本(包括船舶资本成本、营运成本、燃料成本等)外,港口间运量不确定性也会引起船舶规模经济.结果表明:在港口运量匀质化假设下,一条航线的船舶挂靠的港口越多,货源不足的风险就越分散,航线收益率就越高;当港口运量非匀质化时,港口运量差异较大,小港口货源较稳定或大港口货源较不稳定,三者将会对船舶规模经济起反作用.

Shipping line economic model was established to prove that other than the ship costs itself （including ship capital costs, operating costs, fuel costs, etc） , the uncertainty of traffic vol- ume between ports can cause the economies of scale in respect of ship size as well. Results show that under the homogeneity as- sumption among traffic volume between ports, the more ports of one shipping line are called, the risk of freight traffic source in- sufficiency will be more scattered, and the profit rate of shipping line will be higher. When the traffic volume between ports is in- homogeneity, the enormous differences in traffic volumes between ports, the steady freight traffic source of small ports, or the more fluctuating freight traffic source of large ports, and these three factors will counteract the ship economies of scale.