集装箱班轮到港规律的分布函数及实证研究

Distribution function and empirical study of container liner's arrival discipline

统计发现,集装箱班轮到港规律在整体和局部两个层面上存在明显差别.在整体上,集装箱班轮到港规律服从泊松分布,体现了随机性特征;在局部上,服从高阶爱尔朗分布,体现了组织特征.对我国某集装箱港口连续3年共计1.56万余条船舶到港时间进行统计分析,完成实证研究,其结果验证了上述现象的正确性.

According to statistics, there are some obvious differ- ences between the whole and part in container liner＇ s arrival dis- cipline. On the whole, the arrival discipline of container liner o- beys Poisson distribution which reflects the randomness. But in part, its arrival discipline obeys a high order Erlang distribution which reflects the organized characteristics. Statistical analysis on more than 15 600 ships＇ arrival records in continuous 3 years of one Chinese container port was carried out to complete an em- pirical study, its result proved the correctness of this phenome- non.