基于GM(1,1)模型群的深圳市大气污染物灰色预测

The Gray Prediction Model of the Atmospheric Pollutants in Shenzhen Based on GM(1,1)

通过灰色系统GM(1,1)模型群,对深圳市未来两年的主要大气污染物浓度进行了预测分析.通过预测得到,在未来两年内,深圳市的SO2浓度基本已经达到国家环境空气质量一级标准,NO_2、PM_(10)浓度已达到国家二级标准,深圳市空气质量将持续好转.结果表明,GM(1,1)模型群具有一定的实用价值.

The method of gray system GM（1,1） is established for prediction and analysis of the main atmospheric pollutants in future two years in Shenzhen. The forecasting result is that the concentration of SO2 will come to the national primary standard and the con- centration of NO2 anti PM10 will reach the national secondary standard. The quality of the atmospheric in urban area of Shenzhen city will be improved in next years.The result shows that GM（1,1） model has practical value.