摘要
目前统计预报方法仍然是长期天气和气候预报中的重要方法之一。近几十年来,尽管统计手段和方法不断改进,但统计预报的准确率并未得到明显提高。本文计算分析了近百年来发生的几次“气候跃变”前后一些重要的气候要素相关关系稳定性的变化,发现“气候跃变”是影响气候要素统计相关稳定性的重要原因,因而也是影响统计预报的重要原因。
The statistical method is still one of the most important methods of long-range weather forecasting and climatic prediction. Although the statistical means and methods were unceasingly improved in recent years, the accuracy of statistical prediction have not marked progress. In this paper, the change of the correlative stability of climatic essential factors around several 'abrupt climatic change' in recent 100 years were calculated and analysed. It is shown that the 'abrupt climatic change' is one of the most important reason that it influenced the statistical correlation stability of climatic factors. So it is also one of the most important reason influencing the accuracy of statistical prediction.
出处
《高原气象》
CSCD
北大核心
1991年第3期332-336,共5页
Plateau Meteorology
关键词
天气
预报
气候跃变
气候要素
统计
Abrupt climatic change
Climatic essential factor
Correlation
Stability.
