需求结构重叠与中国的进口贸易——基于收入分配相似的实证分析

Influence of Demand Structure Overlapping on China's Import:An Empirical Analysis Based on Income Distribution Similarity

使用对数正态分布拟合了中国与63个贸易伙伴国之间的收入分配曲线,并采用HS92六位码细分贸易商品数据,检验了"重叠需求假说"对我国进口需求总量和进口商品结构的影响。结果表明,重叠需求对我国的进口需求存在显著的促进作用,但对耐用消费品的进口影响大于初级和加工商品;重叠需求理论可以较好地解释我国与发达国家之间的进口贸易,但对我国与中低收入和低收入国家之间的贸易则并不存在可以观测的影响。

This paper fits the income distribution curve describing the trade income distribution between China and its 63 trade partners and examines three kinds of overlapping demand index.By using data of HS 6-digit trade commodities,this research tests the influence of overlapping demand on China’s import demand.The results show that the overlapping demand between China and its trade partners has significant positive effects on China’s import demand;however,the effects were greater on durable consumer goods than on primary and processed ones.Linder’s ＂Overlapping demand theory＂ could well explain the import trade between China and its developed trading partners,but the import trade between China and its low-income trading partners are yet to be studied with other methods.