中国对发达和不发达贸易对象的农产品出口二元边际差异分析

Dual Marginal Gap of China's Agricultural Exports to Developed and Underdeveloped Countries

本文使用1995-2010年世界农产品贸易的6位数级HS微观贸易数据,对中国农产品出口二元边际进行了分解,并在得出中国农产品出口的集约边际、扩展边际和进行影响因素分析的基础上,进一步采用反事实分析的Blinder-Oaxaca模型就中国对发达和不发达贸易对象的二元边际差异进行了分析。结论显示:(1)中国对发达国家的农产品出口扩展边际高于对不发达国家,引起差异的主要因素可归结为贸易对象在距离、相对经济自由度、农业规模、多边阻力上的差异。(2)集约边际上体现为中国对不发达国家要高于对发达国家,差异主要来源于出口对象"发达与否"和在农业生产率上的差异。

In this paper,we decompose the dual margins of China’s agricultural exports based on World Agricultural Trade HS 6-digit micro trade data from 1995 to 2010.Through the decomposition we obtain the extensive and intensive margins of China’s agricultural exports,based on which we further analyze the dual marginal gap of China’s agricultural exports to the developed and underdeveloped countries by drawing on the Blinder-Oaxaca model.The research results show：（1） China’s extensive margin to developed countries is higher than that to underdeveloped countries,as a result of differences between developed and underdeveloped countries in factors including distance,economic freedom,agricultural scale,multilateral resistance;（2） the intensive margin of China’s exports to the underdeveloped countries is higher than that to developed countries,mainly as a result of variation in the importer’s developmental status and agricultural productivity.