消费碳排放与碳溢出效应:G7、BRIC和其他国家的比较

Consumption-based Carbon Emissions and Interregional Carbon Spillover Effect:A Comparison between G7,BRIC and Other Countries

随着全球消费水平的提高,温室气体排放也在显著增加,全面了解全球消费碳排放的增长趋势及其影响因素不仅有利于全球气候政策的设计,而且有助于从消费角度减少排放。本文采用WIOD数据库的数据,将全球分为G7、BRIC和其他国家三个区域,建立多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,构建消费碳排放核算目录,分析各区域的消费碳排放及碳溢出效应。结果表明:G7每年的生产碳排放都小于消费碳排放,BRIC每年的生产碳排放都大于消费碳排放。从增长趋势来看,近几年BRIC的生产和消费碳排放增长率都高于G7。1995年国际贸易隐含碳占全球碳排放的16%,到2009年这一比例上升到20%。其中中国一直是最大的隐含碳出口地区,美国是最大的隐含碳进口地区。消费碳排放核算体系的建立对于国际气候谈判日益重要,在生产者和消费者之间分配碳排放责任,从而改变全球消费模式将有助于减排。

With increased standards of consumption worldwide,there is a significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions.Fully understanding the upward trend of carbon emissions is an urgent need.Using data from WIOD database,this divides the countries into three divisions,namely,G7,BRIC and other countries.Then,presenting a consumption-based emissions inventory,we calculate the global consumption-based emissions and analyze the interregional carbon spillover effect.It is found that the consumption-based emissions of G7 are larger than its production-based emissions,while the consumption-based emissions of BRIC are smaller than its production-based emissions.However,BRIC has a higher growth rate than G7 recently both in production-based and consumption-based emissions.In 1995,16% of global CO2 emissions were traded internationally,which rose to 20% in 2009.China was the primary exporter of embodied carbon whereas the United States is its primary importer.The consumption-based accounting method of CO2 emissions is taking on increasing significance for us to allocate emission responsibility and thus materialize carbon emission reductions.