废弃海底管道拆除安全性指标体系构建与模糊评价

Safety Index System Establishment and Fuzzy Evaluation for Offshore Oil Pipelines Removal

本文以中国埕岛油田某退役油区海底输油管道拆除工程为例,建立了海底管道拆除安全分级体系和模糊评价模型。通过现场调查和专家咨询,将管道拆除过程划分为4个阶段和11个工作步骤,并将各个步骤的安全性影响因素归纳为4个一级指标和15个二级指标。在此基础上,采用层次分析法计算各级评价指标的模糊评价权重,并依据加权平均原则分别对各级评价指标进行模糊综合评价。结果表明,在各一级指标的评价等级中,海底管道拆除的技术方案与设备选择和管道状况对拆除安全产生的影响最大,具有较高的危险隐患。该工程整体安全性级数为临界安全。

In order to improve the efficiency of safety management for the offshore oil pipelines removal, this paper took an offshore oil pipelines removal project in a certain area of northern China as an example, and established the evaluation index system and fuzzy evaluation model. Through field survey and expert advice, the pipeline removal process was divided into four stages and eleven steps, and the safety impact factors of each step were divided into two grades. Based on that, this study adopted AHP method to calcu- late the fuzzy evaluation index weights for each grade, and analyzed the evaluation results in accordance with the principle of the weighted average. The results explained that the cutting methods and pipe condi- tions such as the length and diameter had the greatest impact on the safety; and the safety grade of this re- moval project was ＂general safety＂.