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China's Optimal Industrial Structure:Theoretical Model and Econometric Estimation 被引量:1

China's Optimal Industrial Structure:Theoretical Model and Econometric Estimation
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摘要 With analysis of producer's and factor supplier's dual optimization motives,this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation.Result of estimation of China's optimal industrial structure between1992 and 2009 indicates that optimal nominal output growth rate model has successfully quantified the impact of major events occurring in the process of China's economic operation on the level of deviation between actual industrial structure and optimal industrial structure.Quantitative indicators involved in this model can provide industrial policy instruments for the Chinese government in developing and adjusting industrial structure targets,optimizing resource allocation and advancing industrial structure optimization and upgrade. With analysis of producer's and factor supplier's dual optimization motives, this paper developed an optimal nominal output growth rate model that can conduct quantified estimation. Result of estimation of China's optimal industrial structure between 1992 and 2009 indicates that optimal nominal output growth rate model has successfully quantified the impact of major events occurring in the process of China's economic operation on the level of deviation between actual industrial structure and optimal industrial structure. Quantitative indicators involved in this model can provide industrial policy instruments for the Chinese government in developing and adjusting industrial structure targets, optimizing resource allocation and advancing industrial structure optimization and upgrade.
出处 《China Economist》 2014年第1期32-52,共21页 中国经济学人(英文版)
基金 sponsored by major program of Human and Social Sciences Key Research Center under the Ministry of Education,Theory and Policy Research for the Development of China's Strategic Emerging Industries(Approval No.10JJD790013) National Social Sciences Fund major program"New Tendencies of World Industrial Development and China's Fostering of Strategic Emerging Industries"(Approval No.12&ZD068) major program of Liaoning Social Sciences Planning Fund Research on Strategies for Industrial Structure Optimization of Liaoning Province(Approval No.L10AJL004)
关键词 产业结构调整 中国政府 经济预测 模型 计量 量化估计 运行过程 工业结构 optimal industrial structure, optimal growth rate, stochastic discount factor
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