CPI对地价变化的影响及扣除方法研究

Research on the Influence of the CPI on Change of Land Price and Deduction Method

通过分析价格指数的概念及其在价格分析中的作用,探讨了在地价分析中扣除CPI以消除通货膨胀对地价影响的方法。结果发现,与扣除通货膨胀影响之前相比,全国105个主要监测城市2008年各类用途平均地价及2012年住宅用地平均地价不涨反跌;各用途地价的名义增长率和实际增长率峰值出现的时间分别为2010年和2009年。在地价分析中扣除CPI以消除通货膨胀对地价的影响能够更真实地反映地价本身的变动状况以及更直接地显化宏观调控政策等因素对地价变化的影响。

This paper discusses the method which the CPI will be deducted from the price analysis so as to eliminate the impact of inflation on land price through analysis of the concept of price index and its role in price analysis. The results showed as follows： comparing with the situation before the deduction of inflation, the average land price of various uses in 2008 and average residential land price in 2012 was fallen instead of rise in 105 cities which are mainly engaged in monitoring throughout the country. The time when nominal growth rate and the peak of actual growth rate with regard to the price of various uses appeared in 2010 and 2009, respectively. The CPI will be deducted from the price analysis, thus eliminating the influence of inflation on the price. In this case, the change of price itself can be reflected more realistically; and the influence of macro-control policies and other factors on the change of price can be manifested more directly.