重大决策社会稳定风险评估的主题、内容与方法

The Subject, Content and Method of Major Policy Decision＇s Social Stability Risk Assessment

重大决策社会稳定风险评估,是相关主体运用现代社会科学的分析方法对重大决策可能会带来的社会稳定风险进行科学预测,并且根据预测结果对决策的相关内容进行调整或者制定相应风险应对预案的活动.影响社会稳定的因素有：经济发展不平衡、物价不稳定、失业、腐败、收入分配不合理、社会心态和社会人口流动等问题.在客观上,政策的实施可能会导致政策对象的利益受损;在主观上,政策的实施可能会对政策对象的感受或生活习惯造成冲击.从内容上看,重大决策社会稳定风险评估要求从重大决策的利益相关者以及社会稳定风险的发生点、时间空间范围、等级等几个方面进行.在方法选择上,为了更好地提高重大决策社会稳定风险评估的有效性,应当根据政策制定不同阶段的特征,灵活地选择访谈法、专家预测法、问卷调查法、定量分析法、比较案例分析法、实验研究法等多种评估方法进行组合.

The aim of major policy decisiong social stability risk assessment is to project the possible so- cial stability of major policy decision by the method of social science, and then propose suggestion of adjusting the content of decision or contingency plan. The contents of major policy decisiong social stability risk assess- ment include finding the stakeholder, the reason, the scope of space and time, and the grade of risk. To im- prove the Validity, we should choose different methods according to the stage of major policy decision.