害虫防治决策的复序贯分析方法及抽样技术

A Study on the Complex Sequential Analytical Method for Pest Control Decision Making and Its Sampling Technique

复序贯抽样决策技术实际应用的受限 ,原因在于截止限序贯抽样模型的缺乏。在检验害虫种群空间格局回归模型的基础上 ,推导出了目前国内常用检验回归模型的截止限序贯抽样模型 ,并将其运用于复序贯分析决策过程中。实例分析表明 :对于同一种生物种群 ,在一定的精度 (D)和置信水平 (tα)要求下 ,复序贯抽样决策方法可以大幅度地节约抽样成本。

The practical application of the Complex Sequential Sampling Decision Technique has been restricted due to the lack of the End limiting Sequential Sampling Model. In this paper, based on the examination of the regression model of the pest population spatial pattern, the current domestic commonly used End limiting Sequential Sampling Model has been derived for testing the regression model, and it is used during the course of the Complex Sequential Analysis and Decision Making. It is shown through the living example analysis that, with the Complex Sequential Sampling Decision Technique, the sampling cost may be cut down by a big margin for the same bio population under the conditions of given degrees of accuracy ( D ) and confidence (t α) .