旅游发展对我国投资、消费和出口需求的拉动效应研究

The Pull Effect of Tourism Development on Demands for Investment, Consumption and Exports in China

传统观念认为，旅游业能有力拉动国民消费需求。其实，旅游业发展也会引致多方面的投资需求，如景区开发、基础设施建设等。因此，旅游业发展对国民经济增长具有综合性的拉动作用。文章依据宏观经济学理论，构建了入境旅游与国内旅游对投资、消费和出口增长分析的理论框架，并利用1982—2010年相关数据，分析了旅游“两大部门”对中国经济增长“三大驱动力”的影响。研究发现：（1）发展入境旅游与国内旅游，因景区开发和旅游基础设施建设，对扩大投资有一定的正效应；（2）作为综合消费和最终消费，旅游业对扩大消费有着显著的正效应，其中，国内旅游的作用远高于入境旅游；（3）比较而言，入境旅游对出口贸易具有积极的拉动作用，而国内旅游对出口的拉动效应则不明显。因此，积极贯彻实施旅游产业发展政策，大力发展国内旅游和入境旅游．是中国当前保增长、扩内需的重要途径。

With the rapid growth of the Chinese economy, the tourism industry has become an important new sector for national development and begun to attract more and more attention. The traditional push pull economic model suggests that sectors such as tourism have a pull effect on consumption. In this model, tourism is considered to be a hot spot that stimulates consumption, promotes employment and underpins the economic growth presently seen in China. Inbound tourism development, opening up to the outside world, and export trade are synchronized, while domestic tourism increases as a result of rising living standards. There has been continued growth of investment in the development of scenic attractions and in infrastructure construction for tourism. Therefore, tourism has had a comprehensive stimulus effect on the growth of the national economy. Based on maeroeconomic theory, this paper establishes a theoretical framework of investment, consumption and export effects of inbound and domestic tourism. It uses a dynamic panel regression model to analyze the impact of domestic and inbound tourism on tourism related variables such as investment, consumption, export growth and tourism policy, as well as the relationships between tourism and these variables using data from 1982 to 2010. To further confirm this pull effect, we also develop new methods to calculate the contribution rate of inbound and domestic tourism to investment, consumption and exports respectively through the use of a tourism data smoothing model. The results of this study were as follows. First, there was a complementary relationship between inbound tourism, domestic tourism and investment. This clearly indicates that the development of inbound and domestic tourism had a positive effect on the expansion of investment because of national and local government support for scenic attraction development and tourism infrastructure construction. Second, tourism has had a significant positive pull effect on the expansion of final consumption, especially in the transportation, catering and shopping sectors. Moreover, some tourism policies that have been put into effect. For example, the ＂The Suggestions of Promoting Tourism Industry＂ and ＂National Popular Leisure Program＂ suggest that, given the rapid income growth of the population, the scale and consumption capacity of domestic tourism is huge, and hence, the role of domestic tourism in economic development is much more important than that in inbound tourism. Finally, this study shows that inbound tourism has had a more positive role in boosting export trade figures than domestic tourism, because tourism at the international level is a significant export industry. With the development of globalization and international tourism, the pull effect of domestic and inbound tourism on Chinese investment, consumption levels and exports will further increase. Our conclusions could have important implications for policymakers in coordinating the development of the relationship between investment, consumption, exports, and domestic and inbound tourism. Therefore, with active tourism policy being carried out, the development of domestic and inbound tourism will continue to be an important way to maintain economic growth and expand domestic demand in China.