中国财政赤字和国债政策的经济增长效应研究

China financial deficit and national debt policy's economy growth effect research

本文通过构建一个VAR模型,选取财政赤字率和国债负债率为财政政策指标,来分析财政政策对经济增长和通货膨胀的影响。实证显示:财政赤字增加短期能够促进经济增长,但长期对经济增长无效,且不会引起通货膨胀;相反,负债率增加虽在短期内对经济增长影响不明显,但长期具有显著负影响,同时会导致通货紧缩。结论表明,国家应对金融危机的积极财政政策短期是有效刺激经济增长的,但是长期是无效的,尤其是通过大量发行国债弥补赤字扩大财政支出的政策,对经济增长有较大的负作用。因此,本文认为目前政府应该给市场更多自由,减少对市场的政策干预。

To analyze the fiscal policy effect toward economic growth and inflation,this paper constructed a VAR model by using fiscal deficit and debt ratios.The empirical results shows：the increasement in financial deficit can be stimulative to economic growth in the short term,but is ineffective in the long run and cause no inflation.On the contrary,the increasement in debt ratio shows an inconsistent effect on economic growth in the short term,but a significant negative effects in the long run,and can lead to deflation.It can be concluded that the expansionary fiscal policy which being used by government to stimulate economic growth in the financial crisis is effective in the short term,but invalid in the long term.Especially when a large amount of issuing bonds to cover deficit is concerned.As a result,a decrease in market intervention is suggested in this paper.