亚洲的晴朗天空

Asia's clearing skies

改善美国和欧洲的经济状况能够使亚洲出口稳步增长，但障碍犹存 如果像歌星BobDylan曾经唱的那样，“答案在风中飘荡”，那么亚洲宏观经济风向标则正好指向申级顺风，虽然还伴有低压风险。

Improving economic conditions in the U.S. and Europe point to solid growth in Asian exports, but it's not clear sailing yet. If, as Bob Dylan once famously croaked, 'The answer is blowin' in the wind,' then Asia's macroeconomic weather vanes are indicating fair to medium tailwinds, albeit with a risk of low pressure.The outlook certainly looks better now than it did a year ago. Fourth quarter 2013 data from major markets beat analyst expectations, and the JPMorganMarkit global Purchasing Managers Index produced by reached 53.3 in December, the highest reading since April 2011. The eurozone is forecast to move out of recession this year, with PMI data — which has consistently led GDP growth — suggesting further expansion, boosted by rising consumption in the U.K. and the improved performance of periphery countries. Most analysts expect this to lead to accelerating GDP growth in 2015 and 2016. Against a backdrop of burgeoning consumer confidence and low natural gas prices, U.S. GDP also is predicted to grow more quickly in 2014 than it did last year. Indeed, global economic output is set to expand 3.5 percent in 2014, up from an estimated 2.9 percent last year, according to PwC.China's solid economic expansion and rising demand for imports also will boost intra-Asia trade in 2014.Ample reasons remain for caution on Asia's prospects for 2014, however. The eurozone still needs further reform of its financial sector, while the U.S. and Japan are struggling with high government debt and related fiscal risks that could hurt GDP growth and trade.