2014年中国沿海区域经济运行环境分析与预期——沿海发达省域经济视点的分析与对策简论

The Analysis and Expectations of the Economic Operation Environment in Typical Coastal Regions in 2014: On the Economic Views and Countermeasures in the Developed Coastal Provinces

判断当前世界经济走势并预期中短期前景,须取两个视点合一的综合视野。两个视点分别为空间经济学之核心-外围视点和"两类市场经济"分野视点。预期沿海外向度较高的省域经济运行环境,须盯住三组约束条件的变化。分别为世界经济视野的省域经济开放环境、中国经济与政策大势视野的内在环境,以及困扰区域产业发展的某些突出问题及其解决出路。2013年世界经济依然延续了"后危机状态"——低增长、多麻烦、有大惊而无大险,复苏乏力但未有"二次衰退"。接下去2014年世界经济前景当略好于2013年。但全球经济仍存在一些区域性不确定因素。2013年沿海多数区域经济运行环境差强人意,2104年或将趋于改善。改善的最大希望在于落实十八届三中全会深化改革方略。后者对于沿海发达省域经济发展最大的利好,以及利用此种利好的差异,将与实践两个提法区域进程紧密关联:(1)市场在资源配置中发挥决定作用;(2)非公经济之"重要组成部分"。

Judging current economic trends and the expectations of short-term future need a comprehen-sive vision with two viewpoints,which are the core-peripheral view of spatial economics and the divisional view of ' two types of market economy'. This paper expected the economic operation environment in coastal provinces should pay attention to the changes of three constraint conditions,which were the provincial economic open environment of global economic view,the internal environment of Chinese economy and policies as well as some problems in the development of regional industry and the solutions. The world economy in the passing 2013 continued the ' post-crisis status',being characterized with low growth and troublesome financial problems,but no worries of ' double-dip recession'. The world economy should be slightly better in 2014 than in 2013,although there are still some regional uncertainties. The economic operation environment in most coastal regions in 2013 was just passable,it will be improved in 2014. The key of the improvement is to carry out the institutional reform mentioned in the Third Plenary Session of Eighteenth Central Committee. Concerning the reform,the urgent and feasible work is to strengthen the decisive role of the market in the allocation of resources,and the important role of non-public economy.