水位流量曲线估计中的异方差性分析——以西江上游为例

Heteroscedasticity Analysis of Stage-Discharge Rating Curves——A Case of the West River Basin Upsteam

基于珠江水系干流之一的西江上游14个水文测站水位流量数据,应用非线性最小二乘法(NLS)和异方差最大似然估计法(HMLE)分别绘制每个测站水位流量曲线标准残差图.结果表明:14个水文测站中有5个测站对NLS是适用的,9个测站对NLS不适用;而对于HMLE法,则有11个测站是适用的,仅3个测站不适用.因此,对比NLS法,HMLE法大大提高了对水位流量曲线的适用性.

Based on the statistics of the streamflow series of 14 hydrological stations located on the West River ba- sin upstream, a tributary of the Pearl River, we drew standard residual plots for each station. The results indicate that the nonqinear least square method （NLS） performs well on 5 stations while the others are not. Whereas, heterosce- dastic maximum likelihood estimation （HMLE） performs well on 11 stations while only 3 stations are not. As a re- sult, HMLE could be a good approach to fit the stage-discharge curves.