基于耕地利用效用的粮食生产时空变化分析——以江西省为例

An Analysis of the Spatial-Temporal Changes of Grain Production Based on Utility of Farmland Utilization: with A Case of Jiangxi Province

粮食是关系国计民生、保证国民经济长期稳定发展和社会政治稳定的特殊商品,而土地则是粮食生产的基本条件和物质载体,粮食生产的发展与耕地密切相关。以粮食产量计算模型为基础,从时间和空间两个维度探讨耕地利用效用对粮食生产时空变化的影响。以江西省为例,从时间维度来看,1992-2011年间,江西省粮食总产量经历了先上升后下降再持续上升的变化。在粮食生产的耕地利用因子中,对粮食生产促进作用最大的是强度效应,其次是规模效应和结构效应,广度效应对粮食生产起到抑制作用。

Grain is a special product related to the national economy and the people＇s livelihood, the guarantee of long term stable development of the national economy, and the social and political stability; while farmland is the basic condition and material carrier of grain production, the develop- ment of grain production is closely related to farmland. Based on the grain yield calculation model, this paper studies the impact of the utility of cultivated land utilization on the spatial and temporal variation of grain production from the two dimensions of time and space. Taking Jiangxi Province as a case, from the time dimension, this study finds that the total grain output of Jiangxi province from 1992 to 2011 has undergone a change of first rising, then dropping, then continuously rising. Among the arable land utilization factors of grain production, the strength effect plays a strongest role in promoting grain production, followed by the scale effect and structure effect; the scope effect can inhibit grain production.