基于关键词分析的网络舆情变化规律

Analysis Based on Keywords Variation of Network Public Opinion

中国的网络民意表达已经进入移动互联时代,网络舆情会经历舆论潜伏、网络围观、争辩聚合和影响消退4个阶段,变化过程中集聚效应明显.从量变到质变,网络舆情可以通过"关键词"的计算来确定网络舆情各阶段临界值.同时,根据网络舆情变化规律,可绘制出不规则锯齿型、金字塔型、冰川型3大类曲线图.因此,研究网络舆情变化规律,对于降低网络群体性事件的发生概率,维护社会稳定和政府形象,具有相当重要的现实意义.

China has entered the network of public expression of mobile Internet era,network public opinion will experience a latent public opinion, networking crowd,arguing aggregation and influence faded four stages of the process of change in the agglomeration effects are obvious. From quantitative to qualitative change,the network of public opinion through the ＂keyword＂ calculation to determine the critical value of the various stages of network public opinion. Meanwhile, according to the changes of network public opinion, can draw an irregular zigzag, pyramid-shaped, glacier-type three categories curve. Therefore, the changes of public opinion research network, reducing network for the probability of occurrence of mass incidents,maintain social stability and the government＇s image,has a very important practical significance.