支付结算合成指数在区域经济运行监测中的应用研究

Research on Payments & Settlement Synthetic Index in the Regional Economic Operation Monitoring System

本文利用时差相关分析,定量研究了支付结算数据与经济走势的关系,并基于广东的支付结算数据,构建了GDP同比增速和景气调查企业货币资金同比增速的先行和同步合成指数。实证结果表明,本文构建的同步指数与经济增长及企业资金状况指标具有较好的一致性,先行指数具有较显著的领先特征,能够有效预测宏观经济和企业资金状况走势,可作为区域经济金融监测的重要参考指标。

The paper makes a quanlitative research on the relationship between payments ＆ settlemenl data and lhe ecnnnmic trends by time difference correlatinn analysis, and builds the year-on-year GDP grnwlh and sentiment survey of enterprise cash flow year-on-year growth leading and coincident synthetic index based on the payments ＆ selilenlenl data of Guangdong. The empirical resuhs show that a sound consistency of the constructed coincident index and eccmomic growth and corpnrate financial enndilions. The leading index has a significant leading feature that can fnrecast mnvements in maern economy and the enterprise financial conditions pretty effectively, also can be used as an important reference indicalnr of regional economic and financial monitoring.