我国两岸四地最优货币区指数的经验检验

The Empirical Test of the Optimal Currency Area Index of Mainland,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan

本文运用Bayoumi和Eichengreen(1996)建立的最优货币区指数模型,选择我国大陆和港澳台(以下简称"两岸四地")1985-2011年双边汇率、产出、双边贸易、通货膨胀等指标,检验两岸四地货币合作成本的变化情況。研究结果表明:产出扰动、双边贸易、地区经济规模、通货膨胀率差异是影响两岸四地货币汇率波动的主要因素;随着双边贸易的不断扩大,大陆与港澳台货币一体化的成本逐步降低,其中大陆与港澳地区之间的货币合作成本逐年降低,大陆与台湾之间的货币合作成本则波动下降。为此,推动两岸四地货币一体化,应在继续深化两岸四地经济合作的同时,率先推进港澳货币一体化,建立人民币与港币、台币的固定汇率机制,最终实现两岸四地货币一体化。

This paper uses the optimum currency area index model by Bayoumi and Eichengreen （1996） to lest the monetary cooperation cost nn the four cross-strait regions by using the data on the bilateral exchange rate, output, bilateral trade and inflation index among Chinese mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan in 1985-201 l. The resuh shows that the output disturbance, bilateral trade, regional economic scale and the difference of the rate of inflation are the main factors influencing the four cross-strait regions＇ currency fluctuations. With the expansion of the bilateral trade between the mainland anti Hong Kong, Macao anti Taiwan, the cost of monetary integration gradually reduced, of which the monetary cooperation cost with Hong Kong and Macao reduced year by year and fluctuating declined with Taiwan. So, it should promote Hong Kong and Macao monetary integration at first while continuing to deepen economic cooperation for the four cross-strait regions, anti then set up the mechanism of a fixed exchange rate of RMB and Hong Kong dollars and New Taiwan Dollar. Finally it can realize currency integration of the four cross-strait regions.