江苏省泰兴市2003—2010年食管癌发病趋势分析

Trend analysis of esophageal cancer incidence in Taixing city,Jiangsu Province of China from 2003to 2010

目的分析江苏省泰兴市2003--2010年间食管癌发病的变化趋势，为该地区流行病学和肿瘤防治提供基础信息。方法全部发病资料取自泰兴市肿瘤报告系统2003--2010年全市常住户口中恶性肿瘤新病例登记报告资料。由泰兴市统计局提供2008年泰兴全市常住人口资料。计算食管癌发病率、标化发病率和累积率。发病率的年变化百分比用加权直线回归法进行计算，用病例数作为权数加权。结果2003—2010年，泰兴市发生食管癌新病例5810例，发病男女比例为1．93：1，发病有明显的性别差异。食管癌发病粗率为60．67／10万，经过中国人口和世界人口标准化后，标化率分别为26．95／10万和36．26／10万，0～74岁累积发病率为4．62％。发病趋势分析发现女性发病率有明显的下降趋势，平均每年下降3．07％，男性和男女合并未见显著的变化趋势。结论江苏省泰兴市2003—2010年间食管癌发病率均维持在50／lo万以上的高水平，女性发病有明显的下降趋势，男性和男女合并未见显著的变化趋势。

Objective To analyze the incidence rates of esophageal cancer during year of 2003 to 2010 among residents in Taixing City in order to determine the relative importance and time-trend of esophageal cancer. Methods Data from Taixing cancer registry system during 2003 to 2010 were collected to analyze the trends and characteristics of cancer incidence rates. Population estimates were based on permanent population of Taixing in 2008. Incidence rate, standardized incidence rate and cumulative rate were calculated. Annual percent changes in incidence were estimated by means of a linear regression weighted by the number of cases. Results Over the 8-year period, 5 810 newcases occurred in Taixing City,the sex ratio was 1.93：1 （male to female）, a significant difference was detected in incidence rate between male and female. The crude rate was 60. 67/100 000. After standardization,the standardized rates were 26. 95/100 000 and 36. 26/100,000, respectively. The incidence trend analysis found that the incidence of women showed a clear downward trend, with an esophageal cancer in Taixing was higher than 50/100 000, the trend of the incidence in female was significant downward and the trend in male or in both sexes was not significantly changed.