基于Logistic-CA的珠海市耕地变化机理分析

Mechanism of Cultivated Land Change in Zhuhai City Based on a Logistic-CA Model

以珠海市为研究区域,基于GIS、SPSS以及GeoSOS软件,在分析1973—2008年珠海市耕地动态变化,总结其时空变化特征的基础上,使用Logistic-CA模型从空间角度深入分析了珠海市耕地变化的机理。研究结果表明:1973—1988年珠海市耕地面积以增加为主,1988—2008年耕地面积快速减少;从空间分布形态上看,耕地主要沿原有城市建设用地边缘和交通道路沿线减少,其中西部地区耕地减少规模较大;珠海市耕地减少是基于特定的自然因素和人文因素共同作用而发生的,其中地形和坡度因素对耕地分布起着明显制约作用,耕地与城镇中心距离、与交通线距离和户籍人口密度是耕地减少的主要社会经济驱动因素。

The mechanism of cultivated land change is an important part of the system research and can provide a scientific basis to rationally plan land use, efficiently control the reduce scale and protect quality of cultivated land. Based on the TM data in the years 1973 and 2008, combined with social-economical statistic data, this paper explored the spatial and temporal characteristics of cultivated land change and its driving forces in Zhuhai by means of GIS-based spatial analysis, mathematical statistics method and Logistic-CA model. The results showed that fast loss of cultivated land took place in the past 10 years. From a spatial point of view, the loss was generally based on the edge of urban construction land and traffic trunk lines, with showing that the west was a primary direction of the loss. It was found that the cultivated land loss was closely related to natural and human factors. Among the natural factors, topography and slope played obvious control roles on the distribution of cultivated land. The distances from cultivated land to the cores of town and to traffic lines and population density were shown to be the dominating driving forces in socio-economic factors.