新疆艾比湖流域经济社会水资源配置研究

A Study on Economy and Society Water Resource the Ebinur Watershed in Xinjiang

根据新疆艾比湖流域经济社会用水结构和现状,利用系统动力学理论,构建区域经济社会水资源配置的系统动力学模型,设定了两种经济社会用水方案。由计算机仿真和分析得出,方案二是较理想的用水方案,流域通过减少种植面积,增加林地、草场、水产养殖面积,将灌溉节约的水用于发展畜牧业和渔业,用于工业化和城镇化,用于改善流域生态。最后提出,调整农业产业结构,加大节水力度,推进跨区域调水工程,保护好流域生态等措施,解决艾比湖流域经济社会用水短缺和生态环境问题,实现流域经济社会可持续发展。

According to structure and status of economy and society the Ebinur River, use system dynamics theory to build a system dynamics model on economy and socirty water resource and set two programs for economy and society water resource.Obtained by computer simulation and analysis , the second plan is a more idea.Decrease planting area, increase the forestry , pasture area and aquiculmre. Saving water from irrigation water to develop animal husbandry, fishery ,industrialization and urbanization.Improve the ecological environment.Finally, adjust agricultural structure, increase water conservation efforts, promote cross-regional water transfer project, protect the ecological.Through the above measures, solve the shortage and ecological environment problems in economic and social water in Ebinur Lake Basin. Achieve sustainable economic and social development.