江苏省人口空间格局演变与影响因素分析

Evolvement of Spatial Pattern of Population in Jiangsu Province and Influence Factor Analysis

本文以江苏省为例,从人口密度的空间关联性、人口重心与经济重心的空间耦合等角度,以3次普查数据为样本,以县域为研究单元,分析了1990年以来江苏省人口空间格局的演变趋势.采用地理加权回归探讨了江苏省人口空间格局演变的影响因素.结果表明:长江沿岸、东南沿海和环太湖等地区形成人口密度高的集聚区,苏北平原形成人口密度低的集聚区,随时间推移,集聚趋势不断增强.江苏省人口密度"南高北低",并与经济发展水平相对应,20年来人口重心逐渐向省域东南方向迁移.主要影响因素有历史发展基础、社会生活水平、经济发展水平、人口自然增长、区域发展政策等.

This paper, taking Jiangsu province as an example, describes the spatial pattern＇s evolutionary tendency of the diverse population in Jiangsu province at county level since 1990. With the fourth,fifth and sixth census as sample data, researching methods are spatial autocorrelation and space coupling of population and economic gravity center. The author probes into the evolutionary mechanism and influence factors by geography weighted regression. Based on the results, some conclusions are drawn as follows：（1）High-high areas cluster in counties along the Yangtze River, Southeast coastal region and Taihu Lake. Low-low areas cluster in northern Jiangsu. The trends are changing remarkably as time goes by. （2）The population density in Jiangsu has＂low-South and high-North＂ features, which are corresponding with economic development. The population gravity center slowly moves to the southeast from 1990. （3）The driving force can be concluded into 5 aspects ： historical development, social living standards, economic development level, natural growth of the population and the policies on regional development.