IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组主要结论对《联合国气候变化框架公约》进程的影响分析

Implications of the Findings from the Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on the UNFCCC Process

IPCC评估报告对国际气候变化谈判进程有重要影响,目前正在陆续发布的第五次评估报告已明确作为气候变化新协议谈判的重要信息来源,对讨论2020年后应对气候变化国际合作机制的影响不容忽视。最先发布的第一工作组评估报告基于新的科学观测事实、更为完善的归因分析和气候系统模式模拟结果,进一步确认了气候变暖的事实,发现了人类活动与全球温升之间因果关系的新证据,以及温室气体累积排放与温升响应之间的定量联系。本文通过分析其中一些关键结论可能的政策含义,探讨了这些关键结论对目前国际气候变化谈判进程和新协议等相关问题的可能影响,探讨了科学信息在气候变化决策过程中的作用,以及如何更为科学地理解和利用这些重要结论。

Abstract： The 1PCC assessment reports play an important role in the international climate change negotiation process. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report （AR5） has been identified as one of the important information sources for the negotiation of a new agreement by the end of 2015 and will have significant influences on the ongoing negotiations on mode of international cooperation to address climate change in the post-2020 period. Based on new and comprehensive observations and advanced model simulations, the newly released IPCC Working Group I （WGI） report reaffirms the fact of global warming trend, strengthens the causality between anthropogenic emissions and global temperature rise and establishes the quantitative relationship between cumulative greenhouse gas emissions and global temperature rise. This paper identifies some key conclusions of the WGI report and analyzes their policy implications, especially their influences on the ongoing negotiation process and the new agreement. It also discusses the role of scientific information in decision-making process, and how this information could be absorbed and flsed in a scientific manner so that it could better serve the purpose of assisting us in the process of international negotiations and domestic decision making.