研究我国货币供给超额增长要有创新思维

Innovative Thinking on the Excess Growth of Money Supply in China

不能用M_2/GDP去取代Goldsmith提出的FIR;在中国,FIR主要是表明融资的市场化程度;货币供给量中M_1与GDP密切相关,在中国过去的1992—2012年间,M_1的增长与经济增长和物价上涨是相适应的,不存在货币超额供给,真正超额供给的是准货币;研究货币超额供给要把货币与准货币区别开来,要着力研究储蓄与投资的关系,要研究货币与准货币替代品以及准货币与有价证券之间的替代关系。

It is not appropriate to substitute M2/GDP for the Financial Interrelations Ratio（FIR） proposed by Raymoad W. Goldsmith. FIR is matlly used to indicate the degree of financing through the market. It is concluded that M1 and GDP are closely related, since the growth of M1 from 1992 to 2012 in China is accommodated to the growth of economy and price, so there is no so called currency over issuance, but the quasi money is over issued. We should distinguish between money and quasi money, and focus on the correlation between storage and investment, money, substitutes of money, and the sulostitution relationship between quasi money and securities.