碳排放与经济发展服从倒U型曲线关系吗——对环境库兹涅茨曲线假说的重新解读

Does the Inverted-U Shaped Relationship Between Carbon Emission and Economic Development Exist?——The Reexamination of Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

本文基于环境库兹涅茨曲线假说,选用1995—2010年中国省域面板数据,运用半参数广义可加模型,研究分析中国二氧化碳排放与经济发展的曲线关系以及其形成机制和区域差异。结果显示:(1)在全国层面上,伴随着经济发展,碳排放轨迹表现为单调递增形态,而非传统的EKC假说所描述的"倒U型";(2)规模效应与碳排放显著正相关,技术效应显著地促进了碳减排,组合效应不是影响碳排放的主要因素,且由于规模效应主导了碳排放变动,因此形成了中国单调上升的二氧化碳环境库兹涅茨曲线;(3)不同区域的碳排放轨迹存在差异,与其他地区相比,煤炭资源丰裕地区的CKC曲线呈现出更加明显的单调上升形态。本文政策含义是中国低碳经济政策应充分考虑经济发展的阶段性、区域发展的差异性以及碳排放驱动因素的层次性,制定统筹不同区域差异化的碳减排策略。

Based on semi-parametric generalized additive models, this article investigates the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis of carbon emission, using the panel data of 28 provinces in China from 1995 to 2010. The results reveal that, on the national level, the non-parametric fitted graphic of CKC shows a monotonically increasing trend. There is no enough evidence to support the inverted U-shaped curve in traditional EKC theory. Taking the regional heterogeneity into account, for the regions which possess higher abundance levels of coal resources, the curves show monotonic increasing. This paper also decomposes the CKC into three effects, for the sake of investigating the reasons for changes of CKC. The results of decomposition show that scale effect and technology effect are the most important driven factors of the rise and decline of carbon emission, respectively. Since the scale effect is bigger than the technical effect in terms of influences on carbon emission, CKC shows a monotonically increasing trend in China.