中国出口增长潜力预测——基于引力模型的若干情景分析

Forecasting Chinese Export Potential:Scenario Analysis Based on Gravity Model

以国际贸易的引力模型为基础，本文构建了中国出口决定影响因素的计量方程，以此对中国未来出口增长潜力进行预测。即使按照最＂悲观＂的预期进行预测，中国出口在短期内仍能保持较快的增长，到2017年，出口额将是2011年的1．8倍；与此同时，未来五年的出口依存度将维持在26％～31％之间。在中长期内，中国对外贸易将走向中低速平稳增长的轨道，2020—2060年的年均增长率将从10％逐渐降至6％，2060年中国出口总额将超过100万亿美元，出口依存度将降至17％左右，内外平衡发展的目标有望实现。在倡导扩大内需、实现内外平衡发展的背景下，决不能忽视出口的作用，在重视内需的同时不能使对外贸易偏废，仍然要积极参与国际分工。为实现内外平衡的经济发展路径，中国政府需要进行科学合理的规划与指导，各界在调整经济结构、促进产业升级的过程中不懈努力，一同促进健康和谐的经济增长模式在中长期实现。

By utilizing gravity model of international trade, we establish Chinese Export Equation to forecast Chinese export potential in the future. Even following our pessimism approach, we anticipate a fairly fast growth rate in short run. By 2017, export flow wiii be 180） of the flow in 2011. And the rate of export dependence during the next five years will be between 26% and 31%. In the middle and long run, China＇s foreign trade will follow the path of slow and steady growth. Annual growth rate between 2020 and 2060 will fall from 10% to 6%, and export amount in 2060 will be above 100 trillion dollar. In meantime, the rate of export dependence will fail to about 17%, and Claina will acbieve tbe goal of balance development. In the future, Chinese government should highlight the importance of export and make rational economic programming and guidance.