道路通行能力实时校正技术研究

Real-time Correction Technology of Prediction for Traffic Capacity

针对目前道路通行时间预测的不确定性和预测精度不高等缺点,论文提出了一种可应用于道路通行能力预测方面的实时校正技术。将现代系统理论中的实时校正技术应用到交通行程时间的预测模型中,建立相应的预测时间误差实时校正模型,以进一步提高交通时间的预测精度。论文将实测数据的去噪值、预测值及实时校正值进行对比,对比结果表明,应用实时校正技术后可以较好地提高道路行程时间预测的准确性、可靠性和精度。

Aiming at the uncertainty of traffic time prediction and low forecast precision,a kind of real-time correction technology is proposed which can be applied in the prediction for traffic capacity.Real-time correction technology is introduced which in the modem system theory into prediction model for traffic capacity,sets up a real-time correction model is built based on prediction time error accordingly,to further improve the accuracy of prediction for travel time.The comparison of de-noising values of measured data and predicted values and the real-time correction values shows that the application of real-time correction technology can effectively improve the accuracy of prediction,reliability and precision.