利率波动、房地产投资与房地产价格的关联模型

Association model of fluctuations in interest rates, real estate investment and real estate prices

从房地产调控政策入手,重点研究利率、房地产投资与房地产价格的相互影响效应.采用实证研究的方法,选取2003年3月到2012年7月共113期月度数据,建立3者的VAR模型和协整方程,并分析房地产投资和利率对房价冲击的脉冲响应以及3者受冲击波动的方差分解,得到结论:房地产投资对房价有正向的影响,利率对房地产价格有负向影响,在长期均衡角度上看房地产投资对房价的影响更大,同时房地产价格对房地产投资有较大影响,而利率受政策影响较大.建议对房价的调控应把利率作为一项重要的工具,并且结合行政与金融措施长期实施;重点监控房地产市场投资,严厉打击投机性投资行为,制定政策规范投资环境,引导良性的投资行为.

This paper starts from real estate control policies, focusing on the interaction effect of interest rates, real estate investment and real estate prices. This paper selects a total of 113 monthly data from March 2003 to July 2012, empirically, establishes VAR models and co-integration equation, and analyzes the impulse response of real estate price that caused by real estate investment and interest rates, and the variance decomposition that reflected by them. And then the paper comes to some conclusions as follows. Real estate investment has a positive impact on real estate price; and interest rates have a negative impact on the price of real estate, moreover, in the long-run equilibrium, real estate investment has a greater impact on house prices. Besides the real estate prices have a greater impact on the real estate investment, and the interest rate influenced largely by its own. Finally, this paper gives some recommendations： on regulating the price it should regard the interest rate as an important tool; combined with administrative and financial measures for a long-term implementation. It is important to focus on monitoring the real estate investment to crack down on speculative investment behavior, and regulate investment environment to guide benign investment behavior.