核心通货膨胀扣除食品的可行性检验

Feasibility Test of Core Inflation Excluding Food

对于广泛使用的通过扣除食品和能源来度量核心通货膨胀的方法,中国学者对其在中国的适用性提出了质疑。本文在分析核心通货膨胀的含义及其度量方法的基础上,根据2001年1月至2013年5月中国CPI消费价格分类指数数据,应用Vahid和Engle(1993)提出的基于共同趋势和共同周期模型的时间序列长期成分和短期成分分解技术,对核心通货膨胀扣除食品的可行性进行了检验。检验结果表明,食品价格既是中国整体CPI的短期主导力,又是长期主导力。因此,通过扣除食品度量中国的核心通货膨胀并不符合核心通货膨胀的本质内涵。进一步,本文提出了关注CPI结构的建议。

Some Chinese scholars oppugn the scientificalness for applying the widely used measure of core inflation by excluding food and energy to measure China＇ s core inflation. Based on analyzing the definitions and measures of core inflation, this paper apply the technique to test permanent and transitory domain force in time series based on common trend and common cycle model proposed by Vahid and Engle （1993） , making analysis on the feasibility for measure of core inflation by excluding food according to the monthly data of CPI by Category from 2001.1 to 2013.5 in China. The study turns out that the food price is not only the permanent domain force of CPI, hut also the transitory domain force, so the measure of core inflation by excluding food don＇ t accord with the connotation of core inflation.