我国行业碳排放量测算及影响因素的结构分解分析

The Measure of China's Industry Carbon Emissions and the Structural Decomposition Analysis of Influencing Factors

系统的测算行业碳排放量,并筛选出其中的主要影响因素,对调整产业结构具有重要意义。本文运用RAS法更新了2010年投入产出表,基于投入产出的结构分解模型,采用两极分解平均法对2007-2010年行业碳排放量四个组成部分进行了因素分解。分解结果显示:产业结构调整应成为降低直接碳排放的有效途径;间接碳排放占我国碳排放总量的80%左右,且受碳排放强度变动的负向影响效应比较大;进出口结构调整将成为减少进出口产品碳排放的重要突破点。

It is of great significance for adjusting the industrial structure to measure industry carbon emissions systematically and select the main influencing factors. This paper update Input-output table in 2010 using RAS, and adopt Polar decomposition average method to structural decompose four parts of industry carbon emissions in 2007 - 2010. The results show that industrial structure adjustment should be the effective way of reducing direct carbon emissions; indirect emissions account for about 80% of China＇ s carbon emissions, impacted by carbon intensity changes largely; import and export structure adjustment will become important breakthrough to reduce import and export of products of carbon emissions. The research could provide methodological reference for the study of industry carbon emissions influencing factors, and the results have value for China＇s low carbon economy development.